<我愛環保!>


港燈用 $2,300,000 成本 (好多個零…), 係南Y 島起太陽能發電.


用舊有方法 (天燃氣/ 煤), 每度零售價大概 $1 (包括港燈利潤, 營運成本, 資本成本), 一年盛惠$620,000; 計你 $1.5, 係 $930,000.


用環保太陽能 (哦… 起D 太陽能板唔使用電. 唔使用材料. 一D 都唔污染), 當利息成本係四厘, 一年盛惠 $920,000, 打個平手, 但乜春都未計.


若你用 scheme of control 十厘回報, $2,300,000 (淨利潤).


根據年報 (ten year scheme of control statement), scheme of control 利潤大概 估總 operating revenue 一半; 咁用太陽能發呢D 電, 要俾多 $2,300,000, 即係 $4,600,000 (第一個二百三十萬係利潤; 第二個係成本).


嘩! 香港人好撚鍾意環保. 一年用 一至七倍 錢去發電! 正呀~~


See my earlier entries on electricity market of Hong Kong :

Part I

Part II

For others, see this tag

<Yao Ming vs Rik Smits>


Conclusion 1 : No “tall” men – those higher than 7-4 in NBA can win a championship.


Conclusion 2 : Tall men have shorter NBA life than others, and depreciate much faster.


Conclusion 3 : No tall men have ever been successful in NBA (with the known exception of Yao Ming)

———————–


Here are the most famous tall men in the history of NBA :


Bol (7-7), Muresan (also 7-7) and Bradley.  Can’t score at all.  Limited playing time.  No skills whatsoever.

Ralph Sampson (7-4), one of the once twin towers of Houston (the other being Olajuwon) BEFORE his almost-career-ending injury


The only famous tall man left on our list is Rik Smits.  Let me talk more about him.

No many people would know him now, but he was once fairly famous. Not fully because of his skills – he can shot the ball pretty well (in comparison with other tall men) and his soft touch (interested parties can indeed watch this video to get a feel of his touch),  but also because of his famous or infamous teammate called Reggie Miller.

But during Smits journey in NBA, he was NEVER a very true all star player.  All i can say is, he is a good player.

According to NBA.com, these are Smits’ career statistics (figures in bracket in the first column was his age)

CAREER AVERAGES                 REBOUNDS PER GAME     YEAR TEAM G GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% OFF DEF RPG APG SPG BPG TO PF PPG  88-89 (22) IND 82 71 24.9 .517 .000 .722 2.30 3.80 6.10 .9 .45 1.84 1.59 3.80 11.7  89-90 (23) IND 82 82 29.3 .533 .000 .811 1.60 4.60 6.20 1.7 .55 2.06 1.74 4.00 15.5  90-91 (24) IND 76 38 22.2 .485 .000 .762 1.50 3.20 4.70 1.1 .32 1.46 1.13 3.20 10.9  91-92 (25) IND 74 55 23.9 .510 .000 .788 1.70 4.00 5.60 1.6 .39 1.35 1.76 3.10 13.8  92-93 (26) IND 81 81 25.6 .486 .000 .732 1.60 3.80 5.30 1.5 .33 .93 1.81 3.50 14.3  93-94 (27) IND 78 75 27.1 .534 .000 .793 1.70 4.50 6.20 2.0 .63 1.05 1.94 3.60 15.7  94-95 (28) IND 78 78 30.5 .526 .000 .753 2.50 5.20 7.70 1.4 .51 1.01 2.42 3.60 17.9  95-96 (29) IND 63 63 30.2 .521 .200 .788 1.90 5.00 6.90 1.7 .33 .71 2.54 3.60 18.5  96-97 (30) IND 52 52 29.2 .486 .250 .797 2.00 4.90 6.90 1.3 .42 1.13 2.42 3.40 17.1  97-98 (31) IND 73 69 28.6 .495 .000 .783 1.70 5.20 6.90 1.4 .55 1.21 1.84 3.30 16.7  98-99 (32) IND 49 49 25.9 .490 .000 .818 1.50 4.10 5.60 1.1 .37 1.06 1.53 3.20 14.9  99-00 (33) IND 79 79 23.4 .484 .000 .739 1.20 3.90 5.10 1.1 .25 1.27 1.37 3.20 12.9  Career 867 792 26.6 .507 .115 .773 1.80 4.30 6.10 1.4 .43 1.28 1.82 3.50 14.8  Playoff 104 96 26.4 .507 .250 .829 1.40 3.80 5.20 1.3 .49 .87 1.78 4.00 14.8  All-Star 1 0 21.0 .429 .000 1.000 2.00 5.00 7.00 4.0 .00 2.00 .00 3.00 10.0

CAREER TOTALS

There are several things worth mentioning :

1. Except the second season (1989-90), Smits never played for all 82 games (even in the knockout season with 50 games, he only played 49). That said, out of a total 952 games, he played over 90% of them – which I guessed are the top amongst the tall men in NBA.

2. But, if you will find that after the 1995-96 seasons, Smits’ score and number of games played decreased consistently. His highest scoring season happend when he was 29.  Actually, all of his playing statistics worsened since then (FG%, rebound, assist; but block shot statistics were still solid)

3. On average, he never played over 31 mintues in all his seasons. Again, his playing time decreased since 28 or 29.



And let’s look at Yao Ming’s statistics :

CAREER SEASON AVERAGES

Year	Team	G	GS	MPG	FG%	3P%	FT%	OFF	DEF	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	TO	PF	PPG
02-03	HOU	82	72	29.0	0.498	0.500	0.811	2.4	5.8	8.2	1.7	0.4	1.8	2.11	2.80	13.5
03-04	HOU	82	82	32.8	0.522	0.000	0.809	2.4	6.6	9.0	1.5	0.3	1.9	2.49	3.33	17.5
04-05	HOU	80	80	30.6	0.552	0.000	0.783	2.6	5.8	8.4	0.8	0.4	2.0	2.45	3.72	18.3
05-06	HOU	57	57	34.2	0.519	0.000	0.853	2.6	7.6	10.2	1.5	0.5	1.6	2.58	3.42	22.3
06-07	HOU	48	48	33.8	0.516	0.000	0.862	2.1	7.3	9.4	2.0	0.4	2.0	3.48	3.31	25.0
07-08	HOU	55	55	37.2	0.507	0.000	0.850	3.1	7.7	10.8	2.3	0.4	2.0	3.33	3.11	22.0
08-09	HOU	77	77	33.6	0.548	1.000	0.866	2.6	7.2	9.9	1.8	0.4	2.0	3.04	3.34	19.7
Career	–	481	471	32.7	0.525	0.200	0.832	2.5	6.7	9.3	1.6	0.4	1.9	2.71	3.29	19.1
All-Star	–	6	6	13.3	0.500	0.000	0.667	1.0	3.0	4.0	1.3	0.2	0.3	0.50	1.33	7.0

1. Yao Ming did not play in the last seaon (when he was 29) because of an injury.

2. He never played all 82 games (except the second season, same as Smits). He only played 73% of the total game available (mainly because of the missed season). And you know what? According to Wikipedia, Yao’s life in name is characterised as “Initial years” and “Injury years”. So he is really plagued by injuries over the recent years.

3. Actually, his scoring peak came much earlier than Smits – when he was 26.

4. But Yao Ming is actually an All Star (7 times out of a total 7 season; selected but didn’t play in the last season). He also has Smits’ soft touch; can dribble. NBA second team (2 times); third team (3 times)

5. Both Yao and Smits are foreign players.


Conclusion : Yao Ming is only an upgraded version of Rik Smits. He will never win a champion, retire earlier than other NBA players, and he career peak should have passed.

<I’ve told you THIS>


I wrote a piece on referee decision some months ago.


Though I recently wrote another 10 points to note on World Cup, I don’t watch football much – except during World Cup time – so I have no idea on the frequency of huge mistakes like the Lampard-goal-but-no-gal and the Teves-offside-but-a-goal-counted.  But according to my weak memory on World Cup, since the Maradona’s Hand of the God, we have so-called game-deciding mistakes in every World Cup (e.g. 2002 and 2006).


I believe the need for introducing instant reply is real for the soccer game. But unlikely other sports with decision subject to instant reply (e.g. tennis, NBA), soccer has one very important characteristics : it does not stop and in principle, will last for the whole 45 minutes.  There is no time out, no court-switching (before half time). So I do not expect instant replay will apply to all game plays in soccer.  Instead, I expect the following :


— The instant reply will first apply to goal plays – Game stops, court-side referee uses RFID or Hawk-eye-equivalent technology to decide if that is a goal (indeed the ball can be equipment with RFID technology, and the main referee will receive a beep or vibration for any goal), referee makes decision, game restarts. 

— The instant replay will apply to local league game, then international game.  As to the bet that in 1-to-3 replay will be used in the 2014 FIFA World Cup, i believe it a very optimistic case.  For planning purpose, it might take a year to set up and consider the rules, technology and procedures for the replay.  Then you would have tested it for, say, 1 to 2 seasons.  Further you test it in World Cup regional matches.  So it barely give sufficient time to do so, if there is no slippage, no controversies, no technological problem, no other unintended consequences in between.


Granted successful application of the instant reply to the goal decision, then we have offside plays subject to reply – but this would involve most substantial changes to the game flow (in undecided plays, the referee should not stop the game; it will allow the players to keep playing until the ball goes in.  Then the referee will decide whether that is a legitimate goal). 


Meanwhile, post-game replays shall suffice for some plays (e.g. indecent attack).  In this aspect, the need for instant replay is not as strong as goal or offside plays.

<First move to Championship>

As I have said 3 years ago, if Cavs really wants a champsionship, it should have fired coach Brown. Today Cavs officially announced to fire Mike Brown. Belated good move.

But this is obviously too late, since Cavs, Lebron and everyone just wasted 3 years. And LeBron could go to New York this summer.

By the way, basically I am correct for predicting the winners in the Western Conference first round. Suns sweeping Spurs is a surprise to everyone, I mean, every single human in the world. To some extent, Celtics’ upset on LeBron James is not really a surprise or so.

Celtics vs Lakers?

<Updates on NBA playoff – First Round>

Earlier entries : part 1, part 2

So my prediction on the East is nothing really surprising, except Boston is leading Miami by 3 : 1. According to this updated predictor (espn), Atlanta already has the lowest chance amongst the top 4, 82%, to win the series over Bucks. Don’t waste time on Eastern Conference’s first round.

The west is more interesting. Jazz, leading by 3 : 1, should win (85% chance). San Antonio should also win (the winner are not surprising to me. But the ease they win the series is). It said Suns have 73% chance to win over Portland. That’s crap. With the return of Brandon Roy, the top 10 players in NBA (he is at the level with LBJ, Anthony, Wade, Howard, Durant, Nash), the more correct percentage for Suns is not more than 40%.

Lakers, the reigning champion, only has 70%. NO WAY. Lakers will win in 6.

<So Long!>

This is the third worst policy of the HKSAR Government since its return to the motherland, behind the 85000-housing policy and Mother-tongue language policy :

港府擬撥1.2億 補貼6離島航線 (from MingPao)

——————-

The non-direct recipient argument is crap, as the repairing expense, supposed to be paid by the operators, is now back to their pockets. In essence, it really does not matter whether they pay the expense and then reimburse it from the government or government pays it on their behalf. A dollar saved is a dollar earned.

Why is it the third-worst? Because the operations is on profit basis, and taxpayers have nothing, I repeat, nothing to do with the losses they are suffering. Wrong business decisions basing on erroneous expectation on revenue and cost are inevitable part of life, and the market mechanism, in essence, awards those with better decision and penalizes those with worse. 

By subsidizing those in losses represents injustice, unfairness, unreasonableness and could destroy the most basic fundamentals of Hong Kong.

Yes, $120 million is really not a big trunk of money. But the unquantifiable costs to Hong Kong, i.e. the loss of the principle we have been upholding for years, far exceed this $120 million.

Oh yes, were not for the subsidy, fare price will go up or those operators will close down. And so what? This is the resources necessary to be used for their transport, so still adhere to the user-pay principle. Fare price goes up for only a minor group of people, and we must not forget that this subsidy is at the expense of all taxpayers. If those economic disadvantaged face hardship in affording the higher fare, there are means for them to apply for transport or other subsidy.

To my understanding, there has not been any single case, I repeat, any single case where the HK Government pays the operating costs for a business operating on a profit basis, in return for nothing directly. HK Government does inject equity into public transport (e.g. MTR) on a lum-sum basis. But this subsidy for ferries is a dangerous and disastrous precedence for Hong Kong.

So long, Hong Kong.

<And the NBA playoff begins>

Previous post

Breakdown of Western Conference

1. Lakers vs Oklahoma

Sorry, the battle is NOT Kobe vs Durant, but Artest vs Durant. How tough is the Lakers’ defense? During the regular seasons against Lakers, Durant has very low 3% Field Goal (e.g. 1/7 in the March Game) but too many turnovers (4.8 turnovers, against 3.3 for him this season)

By and large, unless Durant can score 40 in each of the game, it cannot win no more than 2 games.

Lakers, 4 :1

2. Dallas vs San Antonio

This is the series with highest probably of a lower seed (San Antonio) upset. Yes, Dallas could lose, again.

The San Antonio Spurs will create much defense problem for Dallas : Ginobilli, Parker and the wearing Duncan (but remains very very reliable during crunch and playoff time).

San Antonio, 4 : 2

3. Suns vs Portland

No Roy, No Portland

Suns, 4 : 1

4. Denver vs Jazz

The most awaited series in the first round of NBA Playoff : Billups vs William; Anthony vs Kirilenko; Nene + Andersen vs Boozer.

Unfortunately, George Karl cannot be there. In crunch time, coach will play a very important role in Playoff…

Jazz, 4 : 3

—–

Readers can also play with this ESPN stimulation game. This is nothing serious, and don’t treat it seriously : It repeatedly said Bucks can upset the Hawks…

But I tried about 10 times : Magic, Cavs and Lakers should be able to take a seat in the Conference Final, with the remaining seat being Suns, Spurs or Mavs.

It seems only GodFather remains the you-name-it-series that the second episode is better than the first.

—–

<On NBA>

The only thing matters in the regular season is which animal i.e. Bulls or Raptors will face Cavs in the first round of Eastern conference playoff.

Given that (1) I love Bulls’ Derrick Rose than the total of Raptors’ raster and (2) Bulls is more likely to win ONE game, I will pick Bulls over Raptors.  Each team has two games left, and Bulls will get into the last spot in playoff if by either winning both or winning once but Raptors lose once. 

The opponents for Raptors : two lottery-bound teams, Detroit and New York; Bulls : two playoff-bound teams, Boston and Charlotte.  On the surface, Raptors have higher chance. 

I hope Boston, likely opponent for Cavs in the second round, will deliberately lose to Bulls. 

The worst, which is really the worst, case is Cavs vs Raptors… um… Don’t waste any body’s time, 4:0; Lebron James scores 40 in each of the game. The old Boston team – let’s admit this, Allen, Garnett AND Pierce are old like the grandfathers – cannot take LBJ.

The road for Magic is not easy : first Charlotte, the second best defensive team in the League and then Atlanta or to a less probable Miami in the second round (last year Atlanta won Wade’s Miami very easily). But you might not realize that the depth of Magic’s roster : its backup is wore-out Jason William, JJ Redick, Marcin Gortat, M. Pietrus, Ryan Anderson and Brandon Bass.

Prepared for a tear-out Magic against the Cavs.  LBJ will cruise over Magic, taking last year’s revenge.  Cavs.

On Western Conference, my beloved Suns cannot take Jazz. I don’t want to admit, but this is a fact. Don’t trust the statistics, the weakness of Sun’s rebound is much worse than you can imagine.

As the standings for Western teams is yet finalized – position 3-5 and 6-8. Let me write on the Western Conference more later.

Oh by the way, if

(A) you turn out to own a Eastern Conference team,

(B) find yourself in a conference with such teams as New York (28 wins), Phille (27), Detroit (26), Washington (25) and New Jersey (12; it became a winning team recently, winning 5 out of last 10),

(C) but still cannot secure a playoff position -

Oh yes, this is what your franchise player Danny Granger (Indiana), AI (Phille), and Bosh (Raptors) can give you.

<補圖>

This is the picture I talked about 2 weeks ago :

<So Tiger Woods…>

is back. According to ESPN : Last week he announced his plans to return from a 4½-month hiatus from competitive golf at next month’s Masters Tournament, which will take place from April 8 to 11 (Story here)

So people at Intrade were really good at betting and forecasting – the chance that Tiger will come back before the end of April was already over 80% in January (entry here)

I do not play golf, and never watch a full golf match – it is too boring and more important too static to call it a sports. Unless the speed is over 200km/hour, how can you convince me that people are playing sports when they sit in the golf car and not even walking?

—-

Another issue that I may come back to later, is that at least in both soccer and basketball field, no greater player has turned himself into a great coach.

The most famous and successful coaches in NBA : Phil Jackson, Pat Raliey, Larry Brown. They were very mediocre players in NBA. On the other hand, we have great players that become a bust in their lives as coaches : Larry Bird, Isiah Thomas, Kevin Mchale (perhaps the likely exception is Lenny Wilkens, one of the most 50 greatest NBA players, but with over 1000 wins as a NBA coach)

It is more or less the same in the soccer field.