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  • <向補選機制說不, 向特區政府說 Fuck>

    Source from 明報.

    政制及內地事務局長林瑞麟宣布,修改立法會出缺的遞補機制,由原先最大餘額名單替補,改由辭職議員同一名單候選人接替。

    林瑞麟表示,他們提出條例草案後,收到不少意見,有不少議員及黨派提出,如在任議員過身或患重病,由另一黨派候選人替補,這不公道。他們亦指出,原先提出的遞補機制,是由另一黨派接任,這不符合原先選民意投票意願,令他們的投票失效。

    林瑞麟強調,經過深思熟慮後,提出修改建議,如議員日後辭職,可由原有名單其他候選人接任,這可保留比例代表制的原意,而選民投票時亦可清楚知道支持誰人。

    他指出,如原有名單的其他候選人不願接任或喪失資格,就由最大餘額名單接任,最後也沒有人接任,就要進行補選。

    他強調,新修改制度可更快替補出缺議員的位置,節省公帑,並令立法會的運作更好。

    ———

    My previous test on the $6,000 was wrong; the $6,000 can clam public’s unrest.

    But here we come another test for this theory. For related posts, see the following : part 1, part 2, part 3, the wrong part 4

    今年想行7/1 既欲望, 是自零三同零四年以黎最強烈的

    See you guys on July-1.

  • <This Sunday, 6th March 2011>

    The ultimate test to this theory.

    I will take that $6,000; but it does not mean I will not join the protest.

    The price of justice is much higher.

  • 這傢伙登峰造極.

  • <The next Penny Hardaway>

    Penny Hardaway was my first idol in NBA. Like him very much for his pioneer post-up play for point guard. But the knee injuries have made him a very medicore player in Phoneix and Knicks.

    Here are his basketball statistics.


    Season Age Tm Lg G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
    1993-94 22 ORL NBA 82 82 36.8 6.2 13.3 .466 0.6 2.3 .267 3.0 4.0 .742 2.3 3.0 5.4 6.6 2.3 0.6 3.6 2.5 16.0
    1994-95 23 ORL NBA 77 77 37.7 7.6 14.8 .512 1.1 3.2 .349 4.6 6.0 .769 1.8 2.6 4.4 7.2 1.7 0.3 3.4 2.1 20.9
    1995-96 24 ORL NBA 82 82 36.8 7.6 14.8 .513 1.1 3.5 .314 5.4 7.1 .767 1.6 2.7 4.3 7.1 2.0 0.5 2.8 2.0 21.7
    1996-97 25 ORL NBA 59 59 37.6 7.1 15.9 .447 1.4 4.5 .318 4.8 5.8 .820 1.4 3.1 4.5 5.6 1.6 0.6 2.5 2.1 20.5
    1997-98 26 ORL NBA 19 15 32.9 5.4 14.4 .377 0.8 2.6 .300 4.7 6.2 .763 0.4 3.6 4.0 3.6 1.5 0.8 2.4 2.4 16.4
    1998-99 27 ORL NBA 50 50 38.9 6.0 14.3 .420 0.8 2.8 .286 3.0 4.2 .706 1.5 4.2 5.7 5.3 2.2 0.5 3.0 2.2 15.8
    1999-00 28 PHO NBA 60 60 37.6 6.3 13.3 .474 0.6 1.7 .324 3.8 4.8 .790 1.5 4.3 5.8 5.3 1.6 0.6 2.6 2.7 16.9
    2000-01 29 PHO NBA 4 4 28.0 3.8 9.0 .417 0.5 2.0 .250 1.8 2.8 .636 1.3 3.3 4.5 3.8 1.5 0.3 0.8 1.5 9.8
    2001-02 30 PHO NBA 80 56 30.8 4.9 11.6 .418 0.3 1.0 .277 2.0 2.4 .810 1.2 3.2 4.4 4.1 1.5 0.4 2.4 2.3 12.0
    2002-03 31 PHO NBA 58 51 30.6 4.4 9.9 .447 0.4 1.3 .356 1.3 1.7 .794 1.1 3.3 4.4 4.1 1.1 0.4 2.5 2.6 10.6
    2003-04 32 TOT NBA 76 14 27.6 3.7 8.9 .411 0.4 1.0 .380 1.5 1.8 .804 0.9 2.9 3.8 2.3 0.9 0.3 1.4 1.9 9.2
    2003-04 32 PHO NBA 34 10 25.8 3.5 8.0 .443 0.4 1.0 .400 1.2 1.4 .857 0.8 2.1 2.9 2.9 0.8 0.2 1.2 1.9 8.7
    2003-04 32 NYK NBA 42 4 29.0 3.8 9.7 .390 0.4 1.0 .364 1.6 2.1 .775 1.0 3.5 4.5 1.9 1.0 0.3 1.5 1.9 9.6
    2004-05 33 NYK NBA 37 0 24.2 3.0 7.0 .423 0.4 1.4 .300 0.9 1.2 .739 0.5 1.9 2.4 2.0 0.8 0.1 1.4 2.1 7.3
    2005-06 34 NYK NBA 4 0 18.0 1.0 3.5 .286 0.0 0.3 .000 0.5 0.5 1.000 0.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 1.5 1.8 2.5
    2007-08 36 MIA NBA 16 8 20.3 1.4 3.8 .367 0.5 1.2 .421 0.5 0.6 .889 0.2 2.0 2.2 2.2 1.2 0.1 0.8 1.5 3.8
    Career NBA 704 558 33.7 5.7 12.4 .458 0.7 2.3 .316 3.1 4.0 .774 1.4 3.1 4.5 5.0 1.6 0.4 2.5 2.2 15.2


    His injury began in the sixth year of his professional life in NBA, when he was 26. Then he was quite a different player – never scored over 20 on average per game, never playerd a full season, and basically all statistics are declining.

    And… here we come Brandon Roy… who is going to have arthroscopic surgery on both of his knees next week.

    Here are some statistics for Roy.


    Career Averages Rebounds  
    YR TM G GS MIN FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% STL BLK TO PF OFF DEF TOT AST PTS
    06-07 POR 57 55 35.4 6.1-13.4 .456 1.0-2.6 .377 3.5-4.2 .838 1.20 0.20 2.0 2.4 1.0 3.4 4.4 4.0 16.8
    07-08 POR 74 74 37.7 7.2-15.8 .454 1.0-2.9 .340 3.8-5.0 .753 1.10 0.20 1.8 2.0 1.1 3.6 4.7 5.8 19.1
    08-09 POR 78 78 37.2 8.1-16.9 .480 1.1-2.8 .377 5.3-6.5 .824 1.10 0.30 1.9 1.6 1.3 3.4 4.7 5.1 22.6
    09-10 POR 65 65 37.2 7.6-16.0 .473 1.1-3.4 .330 5.3-6.8 .780 0.90 0.20 2.0 2.1 1.1 3.3 4.4 4.7 21.5
    10-11 POR 23 23 35.3 5.8-14.6 .399 1.1-3.1 .347 3.9-4.4 .873 1.10 0.40 1.6 1.8 0.5 2.4 2.9 3.3 16.6
          G GS MIN FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% STL BLK TO PF OFF DEF TOT AST PTS
    Totals   297 295 36.8 7.2-15.6 .462 1.0-2.9 .354 4.5-5.6 .801 1.1 0.2 1.9 2.0 1.1 3.3 4.4 4.9 19.9


    And he first report his knee injury when he was 26 (he is 27 this year). You can see a lot of similarities between him and Hardaway.  Particuarly, both’s scoring peaked in the third year and both were reasonably healthy until the fourth year.

    Brandon is a very very good player, excellent clutch time player (as was Hardaway). From years, I still remember this Buzzer Beater on Rockets (and T-Mac).

    But I have the feeling, gut feeling that he will become another Penny.

  • <HK Government 6-stage policy framework – another illustration>

    These were what I wrote over 1 year ago : part 1, part 2

    To repeat, In general, this is how our government puts forward any policy :

    (1) Say something is good in a hard-sell manner; no alternative given (努力推銷)

    (2) Without providing concrete evidence (leaving alone convincing one) (無實質理據支持)

    (3) Only give AO-style rhetorics. It just loves quoting international examples whenever it is in favor of their policies. (得個講字)

    (4) Impermeable to all commentaries and critics, which are considered as noise (無視一切反對聲音)

    (5) The more heavily the policy is criticized, the more reluctant the government to change its policy (越多批評, 政府越抗拒改變)

    (6) If public resentment elevates to an unacceptable level, the government will retreat somewhat but this only gives further elevation in resentment (our government really has expertise in making people furious (政府作出讓步, 但反而引來更多怨言)

    (7) Finally, the government all along abandons the policy, which, if subject to some refinement in the early stages, may be worthwhile to purse. But i admit for most polices, they should not be pursued. Of course, no apology for wasting time and effort. (政府放棄有關政策)

    The latest example? The landfill extension in TKO.

    Some background : The possible extension of the landfill in TKO was first proposed back in 2005, according to this LegCo document. Exact wording : 政府將於2010年代初至中期著手擴建堆填區.

    Then more works were done throughout the years.  See more background here, and here for more. In brief, everytime the government put this proposal to the public, it will receive substantial amount of critics and oppositions. But the government is very adamant in pursuing this (stages 1-5 loop over and over).

    On 4 June 2010 (another good day to remember), 以清水灣郊野公園新的已予批准的地圖取代原來的已予批准的地園. The designation (指令) will come into operation on 1 November 2010.

    In all the subsequent meeting of this sub committee of LegCo, all participating parties/ individuals are against the designation. But interestingly, the government just repeat the same thing again and again.

    On 27 Sep 2010, the LegCo members 一致通過動議,要求特首廢除將清水灣郊野公園「割讓」5公頃轉為堆填區的「指令」

    In late Sept, LegCo and the government said arguing over whether the Cheif Executive / LegCo has the right to abolish the designation. Very funny letter here by the LegCo, which end with 除非律政司提出更令人信服的證據,否則其關於行政長官(及繼而是立法會)無權廢除《修訂令》的論據並不成立.

    As all major political parties are against the proposal, on 6 Oct 2010, the government step back (stage 6), 將郊野公園修訂令的實施日期是由今年的十一月一日推遲十四個月去到二○一二年的一月一日

    But the LegCo members obviously did not buy in such option. On 13 Oct 2010, the Legislative Council 以大比數票通過廢除擴大將軍澳堆填區指令的議員動議

    But “港府如一意孤行,仍可繼續擴建

    Then all of a fucking sudden, in early 2011, 政府決定不會就立法會廢除徵用清水灣郊野公園擴建堆填區修訂令,提出司法覆核This completed the 7-stage cycle.

    Congratulation.

  • <Yao Ming out indefinitely>

    Story here.

    And I have told you before

    He will retire, I guess.

  • <Currently reading>

    第一章尤其出色.

    其餘的… 未看…

    這本 籃球聖經, 已完成了. 十分好看.

  • Page One $300.  想了想, 買了.

    只有文字, 黑白印刷, 但真的很好看…

    不愧是我最愛的 columnist

  • <On some estimates by a green group>

    Ok, let me keep it brief. 

    1. In estimating a figure from a set of samples to represent the whole population, you need to be very careful in making sure that your set of samples are representative and reliable. There are many ways to do sampling (wiki here), but generally, the more samples you have, the more reliable and convincing estimation you have.

    2. Today some headlines like the following catches my attention :

    The content is similar to the following (the following is from mingpao):

    “調查發現,去年平均每個家庭丟棄0.8個月餅,推算全港共丟棄187萬個月餅,疊起等於78座大帽山。
    綠色力量在本月初訪問300多名市民 (should be households),受訪家庭去年平均丟棄0.81個月餅,較對上一年減少3成半。另外,5成半的受訪家庭,會將月餅盒送往回收,數字上升1成7。

    雖然受訪者丟棄月餅的數目顯著下跌,但根據推算,去年全港仍有超過187萬個月餅被丟棄,加起來的相等於78座大帽山的高度。”

    3. I cannot find a corresponding press release or similar stuff in its homepage.  My guess is : 0.81 * 2.3 million housholds = about 1.86 million mooncakes dumped.

    This is a very dangerous practice, as the 300 households are far from being anything you can call representative – they are equivalent to only 0.02% of total households. Even the unemployment statistics that based on some 27000 households in Hong Kong are sometmes attacked by its lack of representativeness.

    It is very expensive to collect samples. But it does not mean that you should blow up the figures in such imprudent or even reckless way just fot the sake of catching media attention.

    4. So how reliable are the estimate?

    No one can tell. But according to this source, Hong Kong sold about 3 million box mooncakes annually, most (perhaps 90%) are sold during autumn time and to Hong Kong people (over 90%). So roughly 80% of the 3 million boxes = 2.4 million boxes are consumed by HK.

    The 1.86 million mooncakes are equivalent to some 0.5 million boxes (neglecting factors such as smaller/mini-mooncakes etc. for simplicity), or one-fourth of the mooncakes are dumped.  And you think this figure for yourself.

    I don’t eat or buy any mooncakes. But my guess is, this is a figure on the high side.

  • <US$16 mn, 24 mins>

    Yao Ming will be paid $16 million, in USD, next year. For reference, LeBron James will be paid $14.5 million next year; Kobe Bryant will be paid $24 million (usually, NBA players’ salaries are much higher towards their end of contracts).

    I never doubt its market value, especially, when considering that Yao is the most famous international Chinese athele.

    But if you only get 24 mins each night from him. This is another matter… On average, it’s like 6 mins per quarter; or play 2 full quarter. A healthy Yao can give you 30-35 mins. I think, despite 1 year rest, Yao’s injury is much much serious than originally expected.

    What does it mean? Yao could easily get hurt again. There are so many NBA starts that have been plagued by injuries throughout their career (Grant Hill, Elton Brand… Hardaway… etc.). Usually, they are like bothered by the same problem over and over time.

    This reconfirms my earlier claim that Yao’s career peak has already gone.

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