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scimonoce
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Sunday, December 06, 2009

<Oriental Daily on Electricity Tariff>

As I have written before, consumers might pay the full cost for any environment measures under the existing scheme of control. So if you want cleaner energy, the electricity companies will not pay for you. YOU HAVE TO PAY.

轉載自東方日報 :

每年盈利超過八十至百億元的兩電仍要加電費，帶動各行業刮起加風苦害升斗市民！行政會議本周二討論兩電來年元旦調整電費，據悉兩電在增加更環保的天然氣發電令成本大幅上漲後，中電提出加電費百分之二至三，港燈加價壓力更大，學者擔心加電費帶動加風，最終只會轉嫁到市民生活開支，要求港府「叫停」兩電，以免稍後推動慳電膽券計劃時，電費加完再加。

行政會議周二將審批電費調整，兩電亦會於當日向立法會經濟事務委員會簡報電費調整安排。兩電提交立法會的文件顯示，去年燃煤價格上漲，至今年六月兩電累積燃料帳虧損分別為三億及八億元，因此極有機會向全港二百多萬用戶追回虧損。港燈回應指明年需要將天然氣發電比例由百分之十五增至百分之三十。中電則表示現階段不評論事件，留待周二在立法會解釋。

So we have to pay high tariff in the future anyway. How to tackle that? Someone claims we can open up the electricity market.

From my point of view, the permitted rate of return, which is effectively the profit-guarantee-return, should be lowered to the fixed deposit rate in HKD or USD, plus a small premium. For example, a formula making reference to the 1 year HIBOR rate (the rate is currently at 0.54%).

Consider this : If someone guarantees you a fixed return on certain investment, the equilibrium rate of return will be just no more than the market risk-free interest rate. Simply because it is GUARANTEED. The return for HSBC's MPF guarantee fund is no more than 1%. Because it is risk-free, you don't have to take any risks and this is the maximum return you can get.

So what is the difference with HK's electricity companies' investment? Effectively, the return is guaranteed : in case you don't earn the "guaranteed return", the government will pay you back in later years (indeed this is what the hk government is doing implicitly). Simply, there is no RISK. So you should pay the return on assets at the risk-free rate.

It is true that investment in electricity assets are long-term and cannot be "sold" without involving huge transactions. How about paying you at a small premium over the long-term 10-year US Treasuries? This is how corporate bonds are priced as well. I saw little difference.

If we take it, the long-term Treasuries yield is about 5% (now at about 3.4%) and add a "long-term" premium at 2% (which i think is very lenient), we have only a 7% permitted rate of return. Compared with the current 9.99% permitted rate of return, this could mean billions of dollars.

10:25 PM - 12 views - add eprops - add comments - email it

Friday, December 04, 2009

<Suffocating>

I saw the following picture in a famous discussion forum in HK (aka 高登)

I pass by this basketball court everyday. It is located next to CC Wu Building, Wanchai. Very convenient, transportation-wise, so-to-speak.

This basketball court, though being a "court", is only 90% size of a standard outdoor court. Look at the 3-point line at the corner. Literally, no one can shoot a 3 there without standing on the baseline.

I always make joke that playing in this court is like prisoners playing volleyball in jail. Look at the cage-like design.

By the way, I have not elaborated what those people in the court are in the picture above. They are the players for the Japanese U20 Soccer Team.

Yes, soccer players are practicing on a basketball court.

9:47 AM - 53 views - 8 eprops - 5 comments - email it

Tuesday, December 01, 2009

<No wonder they have Sub-Prime etc. crises in US>

Last week, I read in a bloomberg article. As the article is very long, I extracted the most important parts, being the first few paragraphs :

-----

Woman Who Sank Galleon Was Beauty-Queen-Turned-Analyst Insider
2009-11-23 00:01:00.12 GMT

By Anthony Effinger, Katherine Burton and Ian King

    Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Danielle Chiesi spent a lot of time in hotel ballrooms and bars during the past decade.

    As an analyst at New Castle Funds LLC, a New York hedge fund firm that manages about $1 billion, she was a regular at conferences on technology stocks, where she could get face time with executives and press them on how many microprocessors and how much software they were shipping that quarter.

    Chiesi wore short skirts and low-cut tops, according to people who saw her over the years. One ploy was to go barhopping with a group, and then peel someone off to talk to on the dance floor, says a person who attended conferences with her.

    A blond, blue-eyed former teenage beauty queen, Chiesi used her sexuality to build sources at male-dominated tech companies, says Deborah Stapleton, president of Stapleton Communications Inc., an investor relations company in Palo Alto, California.

    “It amazes me that grown, wealthy, successful, hardworking men fell for that,” Stapleton says. Chiesi was proud of her network, too. “She bragged about her contacts in public,” Stapleton says. “She was like a teenager who wanted everyone to know she knew some rock star.”

    U.S. authorities say Chiesi, 44, crossed the line in her pursuit of secrets. They charged her and 19 others with securities fraud in the largest insider-trading case prosecuted since the 1980s, when stock market arbitrager Ivan Boesky paid a $100 million fine and spent three years in prison.

[rest of the article is skipped]

source : bloomberg

---------

So my curiosity prompts me to google the picture for Danielle Chiesi, which is shown below.

Note : Readers may find the picture disgusting

We are not talking about US$100, but probably ending with a million after that. So you depend on the senior management in high-tech companies, who are basically blind, to make investment decision for you.

God Bless America. God Bless Wall Street and Main Street.

5:15 PM - 30 views - 4 eprops - 2 comments - email it

Monday, November 30, 2009

<Observations on NBA>

Below are the current season statistics for one of my favourite teams - Phoenix Suns :

Game Statistics					Rebounds			Miscellaneous
NAME	GP	GS	MIN	PTS	OFF	DEF	TOT	AST	STL	BLK	TO	A/TO	PF	TECH
Amare Stoudemire	16	16	34.1	19.9	2.0	4.9	6.9	1.1	0.63	1.19	2.9	0.37	3.6	0.1
Jason Richardson	14	14	31.4	17.4	0.9	3.8	4.7	1.7	0.86	0.29	0.7	2.40	2.3	0.1
Steve Nash	16	16	32.3	16.2	0.5	2.1	2.6	11.8	0.31	0.19	3.8	3.15	1.2	0.0
Channing Frye	16	16	29.2	12.7	0.6	5.0	5.6	1.4	0.94	1.00	0.9	1.53	3.4	0.1
Grant Hill	16	16	29.5	12.3	1.6	5.4	6.9	2.1	0.50	0.31	1.4	1.43	1.6	0.0
Leandro Barbosa	13	2	21.8	11.2	0.2	1.5	1.8	2.1	0.69	0.15	1.1	1.93	2.0	0.0
Jared Dudley	16	0	22.7	9.3	1.5	2.2	3.7	1.4	1.13	0.25	0.9	1.57	1.9	0.0
Robin Lopez	1	0	15.0	8.0	2.0	5.0	7.0	0.0	1.00	2.00	2.0	0.00	4.0	0.0
Goran Dragic	16	0	15.6	6.8	0.6	1.9	2.5	2.9	0.44	0.13	1.6	1.77	1.6	0.0
Louis Amundson	16	0	15.6	5.3	1.9	2.7	4.6	0.4	0.13	1.00	1.0	0.38	2.0	0.0
Earl Clark	12	0	10.1	3.8	0.7	1.3	1.9	0.4	0.25	0.42	0.8	0.56	0.6	0.0
Alando Tucker	6	0	5.2	3.0	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.00	0.00	0.2	3.00	0.0	0.0
Taylor Griffin	1	0	8.0	2.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.00	0.00	1.0	0.00	1.0	0.0
Jarron Collins	10	0	7.6	1.2	0.5	1.6	2.1	0.1	0.00	0.30	0.3	0.33	1.1	0.0
Totals	16	---	---	111.9	10.8	31.1	41.9	24.8	5.63	5.06	15.6	1.59	20.3	1.0
Opponents	16	---	---	105.2	13.3	28.9	42.2	21.8	7.75	3.75	13.8	1.58	21.8	1.3

-------------------------

I really love the hyper-offensive-oriented mode of Suns, under the lead of Steve Nash. When Mike Antonio (current Knicks Head Coach) was still in Suns, it was the better offensive team I ever saw in NBA.

Anyway, these statistics remind me there were no teams with 6 players scoring over 10 pts in one season for so many years.

Not even the 1995 Orlando Magic :

Name	G	Min	Pts	PPG	FGM	FGA	FGP	FTM	FTA	FTP	3PM	3PA	3PP	REB	RPG	AST	APG	STL	BLK	TO
Shaquille O'neal	54	1946	1434	26.6	592	1033	.573	249	511	.487	1	2	.500	596	11.0	155	2.9	34	115	155
Anfernee Hardaway	82	3015	1780	21.7	623	1215	.513	445	580	.767	89	283	.314	354	4.3	582	7.1	166	41	229
Dennis Scott	82	3041	1431	17.5	491	1117	.440	182	222	.820	267	628	.425	309	3.8	243	3.0	90	29	122
Nick Anderson	77	2717	1134	14.7	400	904	.442	166	240	.692	168	430	.391	415	5.4	279	3.6	121	46	141
Horace Grant	63	2286	847	13.4	347	677	.513	152	207	.734	1	6	.167	580	9.2	170	2.7	62	74	64
Brian Shaw	75	1679	496	6.6	182	486	.374	91	114	.798	41	144	.285	224	3.0	336	4.5	58	11	173
Donald Royal	64	963	337	5.3	106	216	.491	125	164	.762	0	2	.000	153	2.4	42	0.7	29	15	52

But I think this year's Suns is not better than the 2004 Mavs (The first year after Nash left Mavs)

Name	G	Min	Pts	PPG	FGM	FGA	FGP	FTM	FTA	FTP	3PM	3PA	3PP	REB	RPG	AST	APG	STL	BLK	TO
Dirk Nowitzki	78	3020	2032	26.1	663	1445	.459	615	708	.869	91	228	.399	757	9.7	240	3.1	97	119	176
Michael Finley	64	2358	1003	15.7	387	907	.427	113	136	.831	116	285	.407	262	4.1	169	2.6	48	18	60
Jerry Stackhouse	56	1617	833	14.9	274	662	.414	253	298	.849	32	120	.267	183	3.3	127	2.3	53	10	106
Josh Howard	76	2446	958	12.6	377	793	.475	170	232	.733	34	115	.296	484	6.4	109	1.4	116	49	122
Jason Terry	80	2401	993	12.4	372	743	.501	146	173	.844	103	245	.420	188	2.4	429	5.4	109	15	147
Keith Vanhorn	29	684	354	12.2	129	279	.462	72	92	.783	24	64	.375	129	4.4	34	1.2	15	10	34
Erick Dampier	59	1609	542	9.2	202	367	.550	138	228	.605	0	3	.000	501	8.5	51	0.9	15	80	102

And the 2004 Suns were much better as well

Name	G	Min	Pts	PPG	FGM	FGA	FGP	FTM	FTA	FTP	3PM	3PA	3PP	REB	RPG	AST	APG	STL	BLK	TO
Amare Stoudemire	80	2889	2080	26.0	747	1336	.559	583	795	.733	3	16	.188	713	8.9	131	1.6	77	130	189
Shawn Marion	81	3146	1569	19.4	613	1289	.476	229	275	.833	114	341	.334	915	11.3	154	1.9	163	119	125
Joe Johnson	82	3240	1400	17.1	544	1179	.461	135	180	.750	177	370	.478	422	5.1	291	3.5	79	24	148
Steve Nash	75	2573	1165	15.5	430	857	.502	211	238	.887	94	218	.431	249	3.3	861	11.5	74	6	245
Quentin Richardson	79	2839	1176	14.9	407	1045	.389	136	184	.739	226	631	.358	479	6.1	158	2.0	96	27	102
Jim Jackson	40	997	352	8.8	130	299	.435	24	25	.960	68	148	.459	154	3.9	97	2.4	12	4	59
Leandrinho Barbosa	63	1087	442	7.0	168	354	.475	55	69	.797	51	139	.367	130	2.1	126	2.0	30	7	87
Casey Jacobsen	40	768	212	5.3	65	157	.414	48	62	.774	34	89	.382	67	1.7	37	0.9	11	1	27
Steven Hunter	76	1046	348	4.6	135	220	.614	78	163	.479	0	1	.000	227	3.0	13	0.2	4	102	44

For your information, I believe there was a team with 7 players over 10 ppts per game. The team is led by someone call Magic Johnson in 1987 aka "the Showtime"

Name	G	Min	Pts	PPG	FGM	FGA	FGP	FTM	FTA	FTP	3PM	3PA	3PP	REB	RPG	AST	APG	STL	BLK	TO
Magic Johnson	80	2904	1909	23.9	683	1308	.522	535	631	.848	8	39	.205	504	6.3	977	12.2	138	36	300
James Worthy	82	2819	1594	19.4	651	1207	.539	292	389	.751	0	13	.000	466	5.7	226	2.8	108	83	168
Kareem Abdul-jabbar	78	2441	1366	17.5	560	993	.564	245	343	.714	1	3	.333	523	6.7	203	2.6	49	97	186
Byron Scott	82	2729	1397	17.0	554	1134	.489	224	251	.892	65	149	.436	286	3.5	281	3.4	125	18	144
A.c. Green	79	2240	852	10.8	316	587	.538	220	282	.780	0	5	.000	615	7.8	84	1.1	70	80	102
Michael Cooper	82	2253	859	10.5	322	736	.438	126	148	.851	89	231	.385	254	3.1	373	4.5	78	43	102
Mychal Thompson	33	680	333	10.1	129	269	.480	75	101	.743	0	1	.000	136	4.1	28	0.8	14	30	57

2:04 PM - 7 views - add eprops - add comments - email it

Friday, November 27, 2009

<Tapping Water>

Dubai’s $80 Billion Debt Reasonable, HSBC’s Nasr Says
2009-10-08 08:48:41.908 GMT

Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Dubai’s $80 billion of state-related debt is “reasonable,” given the economy’s size and growth rate, and HSBC Holdings Plc will lend to companies facing funding problems, the bank’s Middle East chairman said.

“If you believe the Middle East story, you have to believe the Dubai story,” HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd. Chairman Youssef Nasr said in an interview yesterday. “Temporary mismatches in
supply and demand” in the property market need to be addressed, he said.

The global credit crisis has hurt Dubai’s key property, tourism and financial services industries and led to thousands of job losses. Property prices in the second-biggest of the United Arab Emirates’ seven states fell 49 percent from their peak a year ago, Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. said on Aug. 16.

Dubai’s government and state-owned companies must repay at least $4.52 billion of debt this quarter, Deutsche Bank AG said on Sept. 15. Last month, Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum said he isn’t worried about the emirate’s ability to repay debt this year.

Loan terms for “sound” real estate projects could be adjusted to reflect the affect of the credit crisis, said Nasr, 55, who moves to Hong Kong in February as the chairman of HSBC’s global private banking unit.

“Sometimes, things happen which delays the realization of a project,” he said. “It’s not saying that the dream has evaporated, it’s just that it is going to take a little longer

----------------------

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