June 28, 2011

  • <向補選機制說不, 向特區政府說 Fuck>

    Source from 明報.

    政制及內地事務局長林瑞麟宣布,修改立法會出缺的遞補機制,由原先最大餘額名單替補,改由辭職議員同一名單候選人接替。

    林瑞麟表示,他們提出條例草案後,收到不少意見,有不少議員及黨派提出,如在任議員過身或患重病,由另一黨派候選人替補,這不公道。他們亦指出,原先提出的遞補機制,是由另一黨派接任,這不符合原先選民意投票意願,令他們的投票失效。

    林瑞麟強調,經過深思熟慮後,提出修改建議,如議員日後辭職,可由原有名單其他候選人接任,這可保留比例代表制的原意,而選民投票時亦可清楚知道支持誰人。

    他指出,如原有名單的其他候選人不願接任或喪失資格,就由最大餘額名單接任,最後也沒有人接任,就要進行補選。

    他強調,新修改制度可更快替補出缺議員的位置,節省公帑,並令立法會的運作更好。

    ———

    My previous test on the $6,000 was wrong; the $6,000 can clam public’s unrest.

    But here we come another test for this theory. For related posts, see the following : part 1, part 2, part 3, the wrong part 4

    今年想行7/1 既欲望, 是自零三同零四年以黎最強烈的

    See you guys on July-1.

March 2, 2011

  • <This Sunday, 6th March 2011>

    The ultimate test to this theory.

    I will take that $6,000; but it does not mean I will not join the protest.

    The price of justice is much higher.

February 4, 2011

January 14, 2011

  • <The next Penny Hardaway>

    Penny Hardaway was my first idol in NBA. Like him very much for his pioneer post-up play for point guard. But the knee injuries have made him a very medicore player in Phoneix and Knicks.

    Here are his basketball statistics.


    Season Age Tm Lg G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
    1993-94 22 ORL NBA 82 82 36.8 6.2 13.3 .466 0.6 2.3 .267 3.0 4.0 .742 2.3 3.0 5.4 6.6 2.3 0.6 3.6 2.5 16.0
    1994-95 23 ORL NBA 77 77 37.7 7.6 14.8 .512 1.1 3.2 .349 4.6 6.0 .769 1.8 2.6 4.4 7.2 1.7 0.3 3.4 2.1 20.9
    1995-96 24 ORL NBA 82 82 36.8 7.6 14.8 .513 1.1 3.5 .314 5.4 7.1 .767 1.6 2.7 4.3 7.1 2.0 0.5 2.8 2.0 21.7
    1996-97 25 ORL NBA 59 59 37.6 7.1 15.9 .447 1.4 4.5 .318 4.8 5.8 .820 1.4 3.1 4.5 5.6 1.6 0.6 2.5 2.1 20.5
    1997-98 26 ORL NBA 19 15 32.9 5.4 14.4 .377 0.8 2.6 .300 4.7 6.2 .763 0.4 3.6 4.0 3.6 1.5 0.8 2.4 2.4 16.4
    1998-99 27 ORL NBA 50 50 38.9 6.0 14.3 .420 0.8 2.8 .286 3.0 4.2 .706 1.5 4.2 5.7 5.3 2.2 0.5 3.0 2.2 15.8
    1999-00 28 PHO NBA 60 60 37.6 6.3 13.3 .474 0.6 1.7 .324 3.8 4.8 .790 1.5 4.3 5.8 5.3 1.6 0.6 2.6 2.7 16.9
    2000-01 29 PHO NBA 4 4 28.0 3.8 9.0 .417 0.5 2.0 .250 1.8 2.8 .636 1.3 3.3 4.5 3.8 1.5 0.3 0.8 1.5 9.8
    2001-02 30 PHO NBA 80 56 30.8 4.9 11.6 .418 0.3 1.0 .277 2.0 2.4 .810 1.2 3.2 4.4 4.1 1.5 0.4 2.4 2.3 12.0
    2002-03 31 PHO NBA 58 51 30.6 4.4 9.9 .447 0.4 1.3 .356 1.3 1.7 .794 1.1 3.3 4.4 4.1 1.1 0.4 2.5 2.6 10.6
    2003-04 32 TOT NBA 76 14 27.6 3.7 8.9 .411 0.4 1.0 .380 1.5 1.8 .804 0.9 2.9 3.8 2.3 0.9 0.3 1.4 1.9 9.2
    2003-04 32 PHO NBA 34 10 25.8 3.5 8.0 .443 0.4 1.0 .400 1.2 1.4 .857 0.8 2.1 2.9 2.9 0.8 0.2 1.2 1.9 8.7
    2003-04 32 NYK NBA 42 4 29.0 3.8 9.7 .390 0.4 1.0 .364 1.6 2.1 .775 1.0 3.5 4.5 1.9 1.0 0.3 1.5 1.9 9.6
    2004-05 33 NYK NBA 37 0 24.2 3.0 7.0 .423 0.4 1.4 .300 0.9 1.2 .739 0.5 1.9 2.4 2.0 0.8 0.1 1.4 2.1 7.3
    2005-06 34 NYK NBA 4 0 18.0 1.0 3.5 .286 0.0 0.3 .000 0.5 0.5 1.000 0.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 1.5 1.8 2.5
    2007-08 36 MIA NBA 16 8 20.3 1.4 3.8 .367 0.5 1.2 .421 0.5 0.6 .889 0.2 2.0 2.2 2.2 1.2 0.1 0.8 1.5 3.8
    Career NBA 704 558 33.7 5.7 12.4 .458 0.7 2.3 .316 3.1 4.0 .774 1.4 3.1 4.5 5.0 1.6 0.4 2.5 2.2 15.2


    His injury began in the sixth year of his professional life in NBA, when he was 26. Then he was quite a different player – never scored over 20 on average per game, never playerd a full season, and basically all statistics are declining.

    And… here we come Brandon Roy… who is going to have arthroscopic surgery on both of his knees next week.

    Here are some statistics for Roy.


    Career Averages Rebounds  
    YR TM G GS MIN FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% STL BLK TO PF OFF DEF TOT AST PTS
    06-07 POR 57 55 35.4 6.1-13.4 .456 1.0-2.6 .377 3.5-4.2 .838 1.20 0.20 2.0 2.4 1.0 3.4 4.4 4.0 16.8
    07-08 POR 74 74 37.7 7.2-15.8 .454 1.0-2.9 .340 3.8-5.0 .753 1.10 0.20 1.8 2.0 1.1 3.6 4.7 5.8 19.1
    08-09 POR 78 78 37.2 8.1-16.9 .480 1.1-2.8 .377 5.3-6.5 .824 1.10 0.30 1.9 1.6 1.3 3.4 4.7 5.1 22.6
    09-10 POR 65 65 37.2 7.6-16.0 .473 1.1-3.4 .330 5.3-6.8 .780 0.90 0.20 2.0 2.1 1.1 3.3 4.4 4.7 21.5
    10-11 POR 23 23 35.3 5.8-14.6 .399 1.1-3.1 .347 3.9-4.4 .873 1.10 0.40 1.6 1.8 0.5 2.4 2.9 3.3 16.6
          G GS MIN FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% STL BLK TO PF OFF DEF TOT AST PTS
    Totals   297 295 36.8 7.2-15.6 .462 1.0-2.9 .354 4.5-5.6 .801 1.1 0.2 1.9 2.0 1.1 3.3 4.4 4.9 19.9


    And he first report his knee injury when he was 26 (he is 27 this year). You can see a lot of similarities between him and Hardaway.  Particuarly, both’s scoring peaked in the third year and both were reasonably healthy until the fourth year.

    Brandon is a very very good player, excellent clutch time player (as was Hardaway). From years, I still remember this Buzzer Beater on Rockets (and T-Mac).

    But I have the feeling, gut feeling that he will become another Penny.

January 13, 2011

December 17, 2010

November 7, 2010

October 18, 2010

September 23, 2010

  • <On some estimates by a green group>

    Ok, let me keep it brief. 

    1. In estimating a figure from a set of samples to represent the whole population, you need to be very careful in making sure that your set of samples are representative and reliable. There are many ways to do sampling (wiki here), but generally, the more samples you have, the more reliable and convincing estimation you have.

    2. Today some headlines like the following catches my attention :

    The content is similar to the following (the following is from mingpao):

    “調查發現,去年平均每個家庭丟棄0.8個月餅,推算全港共丟棄187萬個月餅,疊起等於78座大帽山。
    綠色力量在本月初訪問300多名市民 (should be households),受訪家庭去年平均丟棄0.81個月餅,較對上一年減少3成半。另外,5成半的受訪家庭,會將月餅盒送往回收,數字上升1成7。

    雖然受訪者丟棄月餅的數目顯著下跌,但根據推算,去年全港仍有超過187萬個月餅被丟棄,加起來的相等於78座大帽山的高度。”

    3. I cannot find a corresponding press release or similar stuff in its homepage.  My guess is : 0.81 * 2.3 million housholds = about 1.86 million mooncakes dumped.

    This is a very dangerous practice, as the 300 households are far from being anything you can call representative – they are equivalent to only 0.02% of total households. Even the unemployment statistics that based on some 27000 households in Hong Kong are sometmes attacked by its lack of representativeness.

    It is very expensive to collect samples. But it does not mean that you should blow up the figures in such imprudent or even reckless way just fot the sake of catching media attention.

    4. So how reliable are the estimate?

    No one can tell. But according to this source, Hong Kong sold about 3 million box mooncakes annually, most (perhaps 90%) are sold during autumn time and to Hong Kong people (over 90%). So roughly 80% of the 3 million boxes = 2.4 million boxes are consumed by HK.

    The 1.86 million mooncakes are equivalent to some 0.5 million boxes (neglecting factors such as smaller/mini-mooncakes etc. for simplicity), or one-fourth of the mooncakes are dumped.  And you think this figure for yourself.

    I don’t eat or buy any mooncakes. But my guess is, this is a figure on the high side.

September 18, 2010

  • <US$16 mn, 24 mins>

    Yao Ming will be paid $16 million, in USD, next year. For reference, LeBron James will be paid $14.5 million next year; Kobe Bryant will be paid $24 million (usually, NBA players’ salaries are much higher towards their end of contracts).

    I never doubt its market value, especially, when considering that Yao is the most famous international Chinese athele.

    But if you only get 24 mins each night from him. This is another matter… On average, it’s like 6 mins per quarter; or play 2 full quarter. A healthy Yao can give you 30-35 mins. I think, despite 1 year rest, Yao’s injury is much much serious than originally expected.

    What does it mean? Yao could easily get hurt again. There are so many NBA starts that have been plagued by injuries throughout their career (Grant Hill, Elton Brand… Hardaway… etc.). Usually, they are like bothered by the same problem over and over time.

    This reconfirms my earlier claim that Yao’s career peak has already gone.