I pass by this basketball court everyday. It is located next to CC Wu Building, Wanchai. Very convenient, transportation-wise, so-to-speak.
This basketball court, though being a “court”, is only 90% size of a standard outdoor court. Look at the 3-point line at the corner. Literally, no one can shoot a 3 there without standing on the baseline.
I always make joke that playing in this court is like prisoners playing volleyball in jail. Look at the cage-like design.
Yes, soccer players are practicing on a basketball court.
December 1, 2009
<No wonder they have Sub-Prime etc. crises in US>
Last week, I read in a bloomberg article. As the article is very long, I extracted the most important parts, being the first few paragraphs :
—–
Woman Who Sank Galleon Was Beauty-Queen-Turned-Analyst Insider 2009-11-23 00:01:00.12 GMT
By Anthony Effinger, Katherine Burton and Ian King
Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) — Danielle Chiesi spent a lot of time in hotel ballrooms and bars during the past decade.
As an analyst at New Castle Funds LLC, a New York hedge fund firm that manages about $1 billion, she was a regular at conferences on technology stocks, where she could get face time with executives and press them on how many microprocessors and how much software they were shipping that quarter.
Chiesi wore short skirts and low-cut tops, according to people who saw her over the years. One ploy was to go barhopping with a group, and then peel someone off to talk to on the dance floor, says a person who attended conferences with her.
A blond, blue-eyed former teenage beauty queen, Chiesi used her sexuality to build sources at male-dominated tech companies, says Deborah Stapleton, president of Stapleton Communications Inc., an investor relations company in Palo Alto, California.
“It amazes me that grown, wealthy, successful, hardworking men fell for that,” Stapleton says. Chiesi was proud of her network, too. “She bragged about her contacts in public,” Stapleton says. “She was like a teenager who wanted everyone to know she knew some rock star.”
U.S. authorities say Chiesi, 44, crossed the line in her pursuit of secrets. They charged her and 19 others with securities fraud in the largest insider-trading case prosecuted since the 1980s, when stock market arbitrager Ivan Boesky paid a $100 million fine and spent three years in prison.
[rest of the article is skipped]
source : bloomberg
———
So my curiosity prompts me to google the picture for Danielle Chiesi, which is shown below.
Note : Readers may find the picture disgusting
We are not talking about US$100, but probably ending with a million after that. So you depend on the senior management in high-tech companies, who are basically blind, to make investment decision for you.
God Bless America. God Bless Wall Street and Main Street.
November 30, 2009
<Observations on NBA>
Below are the current season statistics for one of my favourite teams – Phoenix Suns :
I really love the hyper-offensive-oriented mode of Suns, under the lead of Steve Nash. When Mike Antonio (current Knicks Head Coach) was still in Suns, it was the better offensive team I ever saw in NBA.
Anyway, these statistics remind me there were no teams with 6 players scoring over 10 pts in one season for so many years.
For your information, I believe there was a team with 7 players over 10 ppts per game. The team is led by someone call Magic Johnson in 1987 aka “the Showtime“
Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) — Dubai’s $80 billion of state-related debt is “reasonable,” given the economy’s size and growth rate, and HSBC Holdings Plc will lend to companies facing funding problems, the bank’s Middle East chairman said.
“If you believe the Middle East story, you have to believe the Dubai story,” HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd. Chairman Youssef Nasr said in an interview yesterday. “Temporary mismatches in supply and demand” in the property market need to be addressed, he said.
The global credit crisis has hurt Dubai’s key property, tourism and financial services industries and led to thousands of job losses. Property prices in the second-biggest of the United Arab Emirates’ seven states fell 49 percent from their peak a year ago, Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. said on Aug. 16.
Dubai’s government and state-owned companies must repay at least $4.52 billion of debt this quarter, Deutsche Bank AG said on Sept. 15. Last month, Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum said he isn’t worried about the emirate’s ability to repay debt this year.
Loan terms for “sound” real estate projects could be adjusted to reflect the affect of the credit crisis, said Nasr, 55, who moves to Hong Kong in February as the chairman of HSBC’s global private banking unit.
“Sometimes, things happen which delays the realization of a project,” he said. “It’s not saying that the dream has evaporated, it’s just that it is going to take a little longer
So the delinquency rate is 17.2% (as a share of total number of loans; NOT in value terms). It means one out of every 6 borrowers under the scheme is late in repaying loans.
Note that these borrowings are non-collaterized (no collateral; unlike residential mortgage which you have the flat as collateral. Look at page 40 of the full report :
— “2.5% 的利率遠較市場上無抵押貸款的利率為低，而且利息只佔個別學生整體還款額的一小部分” (standard interest rate for mean-test loan)
— “免家庭入息及資產審查貸款的利息是按政府的「無所損益」利率計算，另加1.5% 的風險調整系數” (premium for non-mean loan)
The interest rate charged is really lenient, but somehow university graduates, with emphasis that they are already graduates, refused to pay back what they should. US delinquency rate, also expressed in terms of total number of loans, was only 9.4% in Q3/09 (already a record-high). Indeed, the financial crisis is really nothing compared with our university loans
What a shame.
I thought the rate is boosted by the financial crisis in 2008 (fresh graduates are unemployed etc.), But it turns out that most cases (over 50%) are delinquent for more than 2 years. So you cannot blame anything else but yourselves
According to ESPN, “Wigan Athletic’s playing staff have offered to reimburse the entrance fees for all supporters who travelled to White Hart Lane to witness their 9-1 destruction at the hands of Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday.”
This reminds me of the L-ticket, proposed and implemented by 渡久地 in the excellent comic One Outs
Crazy. Another populism. Maybe FIFA is just diverting public attention from its failure in using replay for referee decision. As far as I know, NBA has been using replay for decision, instantly or retrospectively for some years. What is the difference between soccer and basketball then?
November 20, 2009
<Comments on Government’s measures on property market>
— Timely market information can enhance efficiency and transparency. But we need accurate information as well, accurate in the sense that we know whether buyers are connected persons. Or transactions are related to other buy-back or under-the-table agreements (I buy it now but you promise to buy it back later, something similar to repurchase agreement in the bond market)
— This is the only sensible measure amongst 4
(2) 在價單上列出每個單位每平方呎／米「實用面積」的價格
— In principle, more prices disclosure are good. But you don’t disclose confusing ones. Basically, all prices in the secondary markets are on construction area (建築面積); The measures could make prices between primary and secondary prices incomparable somewhat. But I admit this will only have small adverse impact, since prices basing on construction are also in the price list.
(3) 在售樓說明書內更顯眼地列出有關樓層編號的資料。上述新措施將於十一月底正式落實
— Red-herring. Just address populists’ non-sense criticisms
— More confusing one. Simply speaking, Construction of those balconies are NOT free. If you have 1100 sq-feet, including a 100 sq-feet balcony, the price you have to pay does not matter whether these 100 sq-feet is free or not. But it could be more complicated, think of the following
— If developers have to pay land premium for the balcony and such area is NOT deducted from total construction area, they will probably charge you MORE, not less, on a per sq-feet basis. The total price you pay will probably rise indeed.
— If developers are forced to build and such area is deducted from total construction area, that means the remaining area – the area for other parts of the home (living room, bedroom etc.) – will be smaller. Unless you value balcony more than, say, bedroom, you have to pay for something that you value less. The total price is unlikely to gain in this case (unless market really dislikes the balcony), but you are paying the same price for something you value less.
Take another numerical example. If the total construction area is 1100 sq-feet, and the government forces developer to build a 100 sq-feet balcony, then only 1000 sq-feet is left.
That 100 sq-feet could originally go to your bedroom, living room or kitchen. Now they are as a whole 100 sq-feet smaller. You have a balcony at the expense of other parts. Your room is smaller (originally it could be 1100 + 100 sq-feet balcony), and you have to pay for something you really value less.
Per-capita Xanga Account in HK : 2.5 per resident. If you deduct those do not know internet, probably you have only 3-4 million residents left. That means 4.5 accounts per resident. By the way, I have 5 (not all are active or public)
I am not sure whether Dan can read Chinese, or read some bloggers on Xanga. Maybe he is not aware of the fact that HK Xanga was and is just a piece of shit. Totally confused how come he is so proud of that.
I have quickly flipped over the document. Here are my quick observations :
— To have universal suffrage, we must have 循序漸進. So what the hell is that? No one knows. But I think we need change and change over time in order to qualify 循序漸進
I am sure that the following stages will come, except the suggestions will be defeated in LegCo again. Btw, I bet $20 for someone out of Democratic Party for betraying and voting “for” government’s auction.
(5) The more heavily the policy is criticized, the more reluctant the government to change its policy (越多批評, 政府越抗拒改變)
(6) If public resentment elevates to an unacceptable level, the government will retreat somewhat but this only gives further elevation in resentment (our government really has expertise in making people furious (政府作出讓步, 但反而引來更多怨言)
(7) Finally, the government all along abandons the policy, which, if subject to some refinement in the early stages, may be worthwhile to purse. But i admit for most polices, they should not be pursued. Of course, no apology for wasting time and effort. (政府放棄有關政策)
I have no dispute on that 99,000 daily patronage – They are estimates, which MUST be wrong anyway (otherwise they won’t be called “estimates”)
But I would like to point out that :
(1) Government’s estimates on everything (from GDP growth, patronage to public resentment etc.) are conservative. But being conservative does not mean you are correct. This only implies you are too coward to find out the relevant considerations so as to present a more accurate estimates/ estimates better reflecting the realities.
(2) HK Government – including both HKSAR and colonial one – has been systematically over-estimating the patronage/ use of almost all large-scale infrastructure completed after 1997 (with the notable exception of airport)
For (2), it is too easy to name a few : Western Harbour Tunnel, Route-3 Tunnel, Airport Express etc.
I have checked various sources whether these patronage are the final input sets for funding and construction of West Rail. According to this google search (site : Legco with keywords West Rail Patronage), the Government quoted this estimate (“about 340k daily in the first year of operation”) from time to time in 1999, 2000 and thereafter. So I guess these became the final set of inputs for designing the size, funding need and other aspects of the West Rail.
It turns out these estimates are on the ridiculously high side. According to Transport Department’s Monthly Transport and Traffic Digest (table 2.1S), the actual daily patronage for West Rail for 2004-2007 are as follows :
Here are the acutal patronage
2004
2005
2006
2007
Daily patronage
(thousand)
131
177
198
211
Combining both gives you astonishing picture :
(daily patronage 000)
2004
2005
2006
2007
Expected patronage
342
388
411
426
Actual patronage
131
177
198
211
Overestimation (E / A)
161%
119%
108%
102%
(data no longer available after 2008 following the merger of KCRC and MTRC; I have no idea why such data cannot be published)
So the patronage is overestimated by about 100%. You expect 100 persons, coming; but you have 50 finally. In 2004, if you expected 1,000, you will get only 400. Go and ask any event organizers. I am pretty sure that you will be sucked for such estimates.
But the point is, if you could have expected a lower patronage, you do not need so large, so long trains. You can build smaller platforms. Here and there you could save huge sum of money. I am not saying you could save 50% of the costs (as most costs are overheads and somehow fixed), but how about 20% of your equity injection of $29 billion (i.e. $6 billion)? It really does not matter you revise the estimates after the rail is completed, they just can’t be undone and you get your money back. No way.
Let’s view the patronage from another perspective : Why is it so damn wrong?
Mysterious thing #1 : The patronage was estimated by KCRC, someone who was asking the government for equity injection.
Mysterious thing #2 :Perhaps more surprising and confusing, government believes in it, and injected $29 billion equity. DON’T FUCKING LIE. We are all adults : You won’t put something you won’t believe in your document asking for money, right? Recall it repeatedly quoted the estimate patronage (340k daily in the first year of operation) from time to time
Reason : level and growth factor. Let’s review the patronage again.
(daily patronage 000)
2004
2005
2006
2007
Expected patronage
342
388
411
426
Growth
+13.5%
+5.9%
+3.6%
Actual patronage
131
177
198
211
Growth
+35.1%
+11.9%
+6.6%
So apart from 2005 (West Rail was really a disaster at the beginning of operation), actual growth rate was lower than expected. Even the actual growth rates were somewhat higher than expected, it will take a total 20 years for the actual patronage to match with the expected (assuming actual patronage grows 6.6% afterward; such growth rate is by itself unrealistically high).
Again, why? Recall the West Rail was connecting Tuen Mum and Western Kowloon. When Tung was about the starts its 85,000 projects, in the absence of land in most Kowloon, it can only build in NT (天水圍 etc.). Expecting Tin Shui Wai will be as crowded as Body Shop in MongKok, you need a massive massive (not typo) railway system. Here you come the West Rail.
But I do not think the overestimation for usage / patronage is unique for West Rail. This is a tendency, an expensive tendency for any kind of infrastructure. As Hong Kong economy turned more mature – meaning slower growth for everything – it is very difficult, from a pure economic / financial perspective, to justify the construction of large-scale infrastructure. So you must have very optimistic patronage basing on unrealistically prosperous outlook.
So you can see why government capital is always provided in the form of equity, not loans. There is no guarantee on equity. But with loans, if you can unable to repay interest/ principle to the governemnt, your company default and you die. So you must be careful in expanding/ building if the capital is in loan. In other words, you have to tendency to do things recklessly if someone provides you equity, since someone is sharing your loss.
The same must be true for the ExpressRail between Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong. Why don’t set up a company, and let’s HK Government lend money to it (instead of injecting capital?). Just charge it interest rate of, say 5% to 10%.
I see little reason why the estimates could be correct, the raily could be successful, and even if it is anything “successful”, Hong Kong taxpayers could be paid off.
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