<Not-so-happy Friday>

David Webb unveiled something you don’t know about China Strategic Holdings

Think before you 高追.

Source : Webb-site.com

<Some reflections on Forbes’ “The World’s most Powerful people”>

Forbes just published its annual ranking of the World’s Most Powerful People

Some quick reflections. Out of these 67 people :

<The use of populistic wording>

轉載自明報

馬時亨：新職工作壓力較少 (09:30)

獲委任為中策集團主席的前商務及經濟發展局長馬時亨表示，這是一份兼職工作，壓力較政府少很多。

馬時亨接受電台訪問時表示，他較早時接獲中策行政總裁柯清輝的電話，邀請他成為主席及非執行董事，經與太太商量後，決定接受新職。

他表示，這只是一份兼職工作，壓力較政府工作少很多，而他的身體狀況亦較一年前為好，體重下降，腦中風的風險下降。

至於中策股價急升，他呼籲股民炒公司消息時要小心。

曾任商務及經濟發展局長的馬時亨，於去年中以患上腦動靜脈血管畸形呈辭。他當時稱以另類方式服務社會，又表示不想壓力大，估計擔任全職工作的機會不大。

根據政府要求，問責官員離職後需要有一年的冷河期，才能重投私人市場。如今馬時亨的冷河期剛屆滿才3個月，便出任新工作。

—————-

Everything looks fine, and indeed is factual stuff until the very last paragraph. I have no idea whether 1-year grace period is sufficient or not. But as long as the rule is 1-year, anyone – including Ma – should not be blamed for taking new job after 12 months. You can say the rule is outdated, the grace period should be longer. But don’t blame someone who follows the rules.

Look at the “屆滿才3 個月”. This is as if Ma has done something wrong, and he is greedy & untrustworthy. As far as his new capacity as chairman of 中策 is concerned, I don’t think it necessary to use the word “才”. This is purely the personal views of the editor.

What if I change the wording a little bit?

根據政府要求，問責官員離職後需要有一年的冷河期，才能重投私人市場。如今馬時亨的冷河期已屆滿足足3個月，可出任新工作。

So you can see nothing has really changed, but the stance is entirely different.

This also applies to “雖然”, “但是”, “儘管”. These wordings are very good at directing your state of thinking. To put it further, readers could be easily misled with these wordings.

<重慶站>

According to media reports, major landlord of 重慶站 in TST is going to sell his stake. I grew up in Chung King Mansion, and once lived there for about 5 years. I wrote about this 重慶站 a few years ago.

My conviction is the same : this location is dead since 1980. No matter what shop you open, you always end up with liquidation or closing down. There are only few exceptions.

Look at the below report by Next Magazine back in 2007. By and large, CKe shopping mall is still a dead-city.

———

「死場」鋪搵錢攻略 

 
古語有云：「良禽擇木而棲」，做零售搵個好場開檔自然事半功倍，但開設貓貓精品店的Rebecca Ma，卻偏偏選在一個四周貼滿「筍租」、「急讓」等字條的死場開鋪。

四十出頭的Rebecca，沙士期間失業，毅然自行創立「貓之大銀」精品鋪；鋪頭三次搬遷，最終落腳在尖沙咀重慶大廈旁的「重慶站」。這個場開了兩年，依然十室九空，名副其實「死場」一個。然而處身人流稀疏的商場內，「貓之大銀」仍能每月穩賺兩萬，是場內罕有能賺錢的旺鋪；能成為死場榜樣，自有其過人招數。

行經尖沙咀重慶大廈，不難發現旁邊有個特大「SaSa」招牌，沿扶手電梯一上，是莎莎化妝品專門店，再上一層，就是專攻年青人市場的重慶站。但走進這個商場，卻是一片死寂，「吉」鋪一排排，只有十數間靠近電梯口的商鋪正常營業。這些商鋪的售貨員，都站在店鋪外「等運到」，有的神情呆滯，有的則與隔籬左右閒聊打發時間，狀甚無聊。

在這個「荒涼」的環境下，位於行人電梯口旁的「貓之大銀」，門口的「叮叮」鐘聲竟響個不停，內裡更傳來一陣陣懇求聲……

「賣俾我啦！」「唔得！呢個係我o架！君子不奪人所好！」以上是老闆娘Rebecca與客人的對話。同樣的對話，一天總會出現四、五次，老闆娘竟然有生意都唔想做！

珍藏無得賣

這間奇怪的精品店貓之大銀，主要售賣日本品牌Wachi Field的貓貓精品，包括印有貓貓圖案的砌圖、杯、紙袋等。這牌子在香港沒有代理，所以每月推出新貨品時，香港一眾的水貨鋪就會飛到日本入貨，而Rebecca亦會與老公到訪當地的專門店，買入最新款貨品之外，Rebecca還會「捐窿捐罅」找尋限量版Wachi Field產品。這些限量品賣斷即變非賣品，結果在佈置精美的櫥窗內，部分貓貓貨品「有得睇、無得賣」。

由於與日本專門店的人相熟，Rebecca可以比香港坊間的水貨店早一、兩星期入貨，而且Rebecca的貨品定價，較坊間又平一、兩成，形成一定的競爭力。

但這不是貓之大銀最殺食之處，其殺食點竟然還包括租了個死場。貓之大銀前身是設在尖東一個小商場、專賣銀器的飾物店，Rebecca把在日本買回來的扭蛋貓公仔作飾物擺設，結果竟吸引不少顧客問起擺設的價錢。Rebecca索性加賣貓貓精品，並搬遷至尖沙咀Update Mall商場，九個月前再搬到重慶站，揀這裡除了租金較平，亦因為在死場能提供較佳服務。

顧客任摸任睇

「人流太多的潮流商場，貨品必須全放入櫥窗以確保安全，不能讓顧客貼身感受貨物的品質，開在這裡我可以讓顧客『睇得見、摸得到』。」所以入來的顧客，一旦選到心水貨品，Rebecca會即時「開封」，例如是已封了膠袋的電話繩，她也會拆開讓他們看清及摸清貨品質量，就算不買也不會面左左。

第二着，是主動幫客人揀貨。由於Rebecca每次到日本入貨都純粹靠「直覺」，所以只會挑選部分產品帶回店鋪，減低購入死貨的機會，其餘的則讓顧客看日本專門店的產品目錄訂購。她不時會向顧客教路，陪他們看產品目錄訂貨，替她們分析產品的用料、用途和價錢，提醒他們哪些貨品「唔抵買」。

「有啲護照封套，只係一塊膠都賣四百幾蚊港元，我會叫佢哋三思先好買。有啲過千元的貨品，我亦勸佢等我過日本望清楚質素先，以免買咗貴貨唔鍾意。其實千祈唔好當客人係傻嘅，客人覺得我有誠意，唔會亂叫佢買嘢，先會返轉頭。」她語帶自豪地說，用作留顧客電話幫助訂貨的記錄本子厚疊疊，已儲了六百多個電話。

自設贈品派街坊

經常來幫襯的通常也是貓痴，這類人「先天性」容易變成熟客，所以家養四隻名種貓的Rebecca，就算已聘請兼職售貨員，自己亦會日日在鋪頭打躉，與貓迷「傾貓經」，談談愛貓的飲食健康，說說養貓之道，盡量將他們留在鋪內的時間延長。擁有十年市場推廣經驗的Rebecca深明做生意之道，「每一步主動行多少少，個客嘅感覺已經會好唔同。」幸好Rebecca一向健談，縱使與初次見面的客人亦可滔滔不絕。她不諱言不單生客變熟客，有些熟客後來還變成了她的好朋友。

Rebecca又不怕蝕底，會免費派發特設的貓貓年曆咭，以其家中的貓貓靚相做主角，滿足一眾貓迷。閒時她又會搜羅印有貓貓公仔的環保袋、香薰等作贈品，記者到訪當日便親眼見到，一位初次光臨貓之大銀的顧客，收到可愛貓貓環保袋時的興奮程度。「好得意呀！好靚呀！」少女以高八度的聲音呼叫着，隨即引來其他顧客的圍觀。

與熟客網誌交心

離開店鋪，Rebecca還在家中以網誌和熟客交心。她喜歡寫網上日誌，生活離不開貓，網誌自然與家中的愛貓有關。她在店鋪網頁內公開其網誌，與貓迷分享家中四隻愛貓的軼事和大量生活照。當中有一篇Rebecca悼念愛貓女「柔柔」的一封信，道盡了她對早年因患腎病而離世的小貓女之懷念和悲痛。從網誌可見，貓迷對Rebecca家中的貓成員都甚為熟悉，經常會予以慰問和關心。

為了令人流稀疏的商場帶入生客，Rebecca另外取了Zippo打火機的代理權，希望以有牌子的產品引遊客上樓。她解釋：「重慶站最大問題是缺乏宣傳，甚至令人以為這座建築物只有莎莎，根本不為意樓上還有商場。」為了要在商場地下門口放置一個「Zippo」的橫額，Rebecca足足與商場管理處角力了好幾個月。

「以我經驗，個場死唔緊要，仲可以靠唔同嘅嘢補救，一定會搵到自己嘅賣點。」Rebecca奉勸創業者：「在死場開鋪都要搵個容易啲俾人搵到嘅位。」例如是電梯或樓梯口。而死場的生客人流不多，不適合薄利多銷的鋪頭，反而「小眾」口味的鋪頭進駐，可減輕租金負擔。
 

———

<US Labor market in October>

In overall terms, US labor market remained weak in October-09 : Unemployment rate continued to rise, company continued to cut jobs and earnings growth kept decelerating.

Apart from a slower cut in payroll and a upward revision to data in Aug and Sep, there is little reverting the weak US labor market. Luckily, US Senate passed an extension of unemployment benefits (by 20 weeks), so that some will have minimum income support.

Unemployment rate soared to 10.2% in Oct (9.8% in Sep), a level unseen since Aug-83. Since monthly record began in 1940, the record-high unemployment rate was 10.8% in 1983. Of course, if we include annual data, we could have jobless rate as high as 25% during the great depression

In US, discouraged workers – workers left labor force because believing no job is available – are not counted as unemployed (In HK, they are counted as unemployed). So the above unemployment rate has been underestimated. According to US Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were about 800k such workers in Oct (against labor force of about 150 mn).

If you count those having part time job, these “discouraged” workers to those unemployed, the “adjusted unemployment” rate is 16.3% (Table U-6 here). Awful

For those unemployed, the average unemployment duration (i.e. you sum up how many weeks these unemployed persons being unemployed, and then dividend by the no. of unemployment) broke record again, to 26.9 weeks.

That means, on average, every unemployed person in US was unemployed for 6 months. This is problematic, as numerous studies showed the longer you are unemployed, the less likely you are able to find a job (you lost skills etc. during the unemployment).

Don’t be too happy if you still manage to get a job : your income growth is slowing and your working hourly is stagnant

While we escape Great Depression 2.0, the recovery in labor market is yet to be seen.

<HK Government 6-stage policy framework – an illustration>

This is what I wrote on Oct-20

——————-

Let me illustrate this with the case of Goods and Services Tax (GST).

Basically, GST is a sales tax. The Government wanted to add a GST in HK a few years ago, and it started a consultation on that. At the very beginning, the hidden-but-everyone-knew-agent was, no mater what happens, it is going to have the GST done.

Let’s see how the consultation went on.

——————-

2006年7月18日 : 政府展開 GST 咨詢

——————-

Then, you can expect, political parties are against it; everyone except those benefiting from GST is against it

——————-

But the government is simply impermeable to all criticisms. Then it presents so-called “evidence” that convinces no one (I suspect even the officials themselves)

——————-

Only more public resentment. Government is forced to give concessions, but unfortunately, this gives nothing but more resentment

——————-

Final stage : Policy is sent to guillotine

——————-

In one way or the other, such story repeated again and again in the past 12 years. Just look at this guy and the another, and count. Countless.

Whenever government starts any consultation, Hong Kong people are very careful and skeptical since it always, I mean, ALWAYS carries hidden agenda and preempt decisions.

No one trusts our government and officials, regardless of anything they said. I just do not believe in any of them.

I feel sorry and hate saying about this. I have been living here since I was born in HK. I used to love HK but unfortunately, noT anymore.

Why? I admit from the beginning I do not believe in any government. I do not think it can really help you or me. All I expect is at least, it does ruin our life. Over and over, our HK government just ruins everything.

Over the past 12 years, HK government successfully killed HK.

<Good news – Shanghai will have its own Disneyland>

Disney announced it got Mainland’s approval to build a theme park in Shanghai. So in China we will have 2 Disney Theme Parks (US also has small one in California and gigantic one in Orlando).

Shanghai’s theme park will be 4.1 平方公里 (In comparison, Hong Kong’s is about 1.3, Orlando Walt Disney World Resort is 120 km-square, California’s is about 2), possibly open in 2014.

What’s so good? When Shanghai has its own Disneyland, less Mainlanders will come to the one in Hong Kong. This is good, especially for those who follow rules and line up for games and pictures with Disney characters.

One caveat. We have to ensure that the one in Hong Kong did not bankrupted or become the next 甲賀山. Otherwise, HK Taxpayers’ equity share in Disneyland will be very at risk.

<他朝君體也相同>

Donald Tsang’s rating



Tung Chee-hwa’s rating

Everyone should be surprised how similar these 2 charts look alike.

Given the lack of samples (we have 2 CE so far anyway), only the following observations can be drawn

The upcoming bomb for Tsang, I suspect, will be 政改.

Be prepared for the absence of Donald Tsang (again).

More readings : Bigarnex on 獨善其身

<As the CFL (慳電膽) policy enters stage 6>

After being criticized over and over in the past 3 weeks, the CFL-voucher scheme was toned down again, and “officially” enters the stage 6 of any policy it put forward :

So this scheme is certified.

We used to say 化腐朽為神奇. But I always wonder how come our government has the ability of 化神奇為腐蝕朽, just for any policy it puts forward.

And I am also surprised that our great CE does not intend to attend the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen (the successor of Kyoto Conference which finally made Kyoto-Protocol) 

This reaffirms the conclusion that any HKSAR-government policy, not only very micro-level ones (e.g. CFL), but also the broader ones (e.g. government’s environmental policy), is made up of AO-rhetorics.

Crap.

<95% sure>

Though without making a serious research, I think when a leader of anything (city, region, country) criticizes the media without giving concrete counter-evidence, he’s 95% doomed to be either (1) a dictator or (2) a soon-to-resign leader.

The best response is NOT to comment on how bad media is. For that it is never to be good. So you have to either control the media (which leads to 1 above; to make it worse but for enemy only) or,  demonstrate you are good and committed nothing wrong (which means, the media is wrong)

When you comments the commentaries, you bring nothing but more controversies. This NEVER solve the things, which eventually rewards you a resignation. Basically, the HK government as a whole is approaching towards the stage 5 of its policy-promoting cycle.

But how can he defend? It is simply impossible. Maybe the media is true. Because the government is unyielding in all of its policies, and the officials are adamant in letting the critics win (even though this will cause lose-lose situation), everything is doomed to failure if it does not start correctly and smoothly. If withdrawing the policy at earlier stages, maybe it can help. But at this stage, retreating the policy will only bring more smoking-gun of a government-deliver-benefits-to-business conspiracy.

And the most haliarious part of this story, which none of us would have expected, is this guy just took a couple of holidays when everything is out of control. You think Bush would have a trip in whenever during 911? Yes, Obama did have his trip when health care reform was under attack. But what? He has a team of professionals politicians to defend for him and his policies.

How about Tsang? He has none. Basically, everyone in his circle is looking for the next CE.

Goodbye Donald. I think your days as CE are counting down.