March 16, 2010

• <Crap>

  EMSD finally released its report on the LPG incidence (final report here, appendix here)

  This is the major conclusion (p.53 of the report) :

  7.5 專案小組沒有證據確定中石化該8 次懷疑未能按照氣庫工作程序進行的「扽缸」運作，直接引起今次死火事件，但專案小組認為懷疑未按程序進行的「扽缸」，有機會影響石油氣的品質。

  Of course they cannot find evidence. But the relationship can be less than sufficient “扽缸”, then LPG quality being affected, and causing 死火.

  The whole report is pseudo-scientific, without many piece of seemingly useful information. 

  This is the only possible piece of evidence that is likely to cause the incidence. So what would you expect?

  1. Relevant records of 扽缸 by other oil companies. This is simple.

  If we discover that other oil companies have sufficient time for 扽缸, then this gives more evidence and confidence that insufficient time for 扽缸 may cause the incidence. If NOT, this can prove 中石化 more 清白, as the insufficient 扽缸 and 死火 are just correlation (A happens, then B happens; but A does not cause B), instead of causality (A happens, then B happens; A does cause B).

  2. Some hypothetical 扽缸 with less than sufficient hours. Then test the quality of LPG, use it to test with it will lead to 死火. This is not so simple.

  This can even provide strong evidence to prove or disprove 中石化.

  Yet, basically, so conclusion is worse than no conclusion. This is a shame, because such committee has put no real effort in finding the true cause, and more importantly, getting the appropriate way to avoid similar problems in the future.

  One good thing : This report amazes supporters of the conspiracy theory that our Government dares not to disclose the failure / fault of any Mainland enterprise.

  (earlier entry on 死火)

  • 12:15 pm
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