I have no dispute on that 99,000 daily patronage - They are estimates, which MUST be wrong anyway (otherwise they won't be called "estimates")
But I would like to point out that :
(1) Government's estimates on everything (from GDP growth, patronage to public resentment etc.) are conservative. But being conservative does not mean you are correct. This only implies you are too coward to find out the relevant considerations so as to present a more accurate estimates/ estimates better reflecting the realities.
(2) HK Government - including both HKSAR and colonial one - has been systematically over-estimating the patronage/ use of almost all large-scale infrastructure completed after 1997 (with the notable exception of airport)
For (2), it is too easy to name a few : Western Harbour Tunnel, Route-3 Tunnel, Airport Express etc.
I have checked various sources whether these patronage are the final input sets for funding and construction of West Rail. According to this google search (site : Legco with keywords West Rail Patronage), the Government quoted this estimate ("about 340k daily in the first year of operation") from time to time in 1999, 2000 and thereafter. So I guess these became the final set of inputs for designing the size, funding need and other aspects of the West Rail.
It turns out these estimates are on the ridiculously high side. According to Transport Department's Monthly Transport and Traffic Digest (table 2.1S), the actual daily patronage for West Rail for 2004-2007 are as follows :
Here are the acutal patronage
2004
2005
2006
2007
Daily patronage
(thousand)
131
177
198
211
Combining both gives you astonishing picture :
(daily patronage 000)
2004
2005
2006
2007
Expected patronage
342
388
411
426
Actual patronage
131
177
198
211
Overestimation (E / A)
161%
119%
108%
102%
(data no longer available after 2008 following the merger of KCRC and MTRC; I have no idea why such data cannot be published)
So the patronage is overestimated by about 100%. You expect 100 persons, coming; but you have 50 finally. In 2004, if you expected 1,000, you will get only 400. Go and ask any event organizers. I am pretty sure that you will be sucked for such estimates.
But the point is, if you could have expected a lower patronage, you do not need so large, so long trains. You can build smaller platforms. Here and there you could save huge sum of money. I am not saying you could save 50% of the costs (as most costs are overheads and somehow fixed), but how about 20% of your equity injection of $29 billion (i.e. $6 billion)? It really does not matter you revise the estimates after the rail is completed, they just can't be undone and you get your money back. No way.
Let's view the patronage from another perspective : Why is it so damn wrong?
Mysterious thing #1 : The patronage was estimated by KCRC, someone who was asking the government for equity injection.
Mysterious thing #2 :Perhaps more surprising and confusing, government believes in it, and injected $29 billion equity. DON'T FUCKING LIE. We are all adults : You won't put something you won't believe in your document asking for money, right? Recall it repeatedly quoted the estimate patronage (340k daily in the first year of operation) from time to time
Reason : level and growth factor. Let's review the patronage again.
(daily patronage 000)
2004
2005
2006
2007
Expected patronage
342
388
411
426
Growth
+13.5%
+5.9%
+3.6%
Actual patronage
131
177
198
211
Growth
+35.1%
+11.9%
+6.6%
So apart from 2005 (West Rail was really a disaster at the beginning of operation), actual growth rate was lower than expected. Even the actual growth rates were somewhat higher than expected, it will take a total 20 years for the actual patronage to match with the expected (assuming actual patronage grows 6.6% afterward; such growth rate is by itself unrealistically high).
Again, why? Recall the West Rail was connecting Tuen Mum and Western Kowloon. When Tung was about the starts its 85,000 projects, in the absence of land in most Kowloon, it can only build in NT (天水圍 etc.). Expecting Tin Shui Wai will be as crowded as Body Shop in MongKok, you need a massive massive (not typo) railway system. Here you come the West Rail.
But I do not think the overestimation for usage / patronage is unique for West Rail. This is a tendency, an expensive tendency for any kind of infrastructure. As Hong Kong economy turned more mature - meaning slower growth for everything - it is very difficult, from a pure economic / financial perspective, to justify the construction of large-scale infrastructure. So you must have very optimistic patronage basing on unrealistically prosperous outlook.
So you can see why government capital is always provided in the form of equity, not loans. There is no guarantee on equity. But with loans, if you can unable to repay interest/ principle to the governemnt, your company default and you die. So you must be careful in expanding/ building if the capital is in loan. In other words, you have to tendency to do things recklessly if someone provides you equity, since someone is sharing your loss.
The same must be true for the ExpressRail between Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong. Why don't set up a company, and let's HK Government lend money to it (instead of injecting capital?). Just charge it interest rate of, say 5% to 10%.
I see little reason why the estimates could be correct, the raily could be successful, and even if it is anything "successful", Hong Kong taxpayers could be paid off.
